UFC Mexico City predictions: Early ‘Prelims’ undercard preview | Moreno vs. Royval 2

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its road trip this weekend (Sat., Feb. 24, 2024) when Brandon Royval steps up on short notice to battle former Flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno, at UFC Mexico City, which takes place this weekend (Sat., Feb. 24, 2024) inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Mexico.

The ESPN+-streamed event will also host a pivotal Featherweight rematch between Chihuahua’s Yair Rodriguez and dangerous contender, Brian Ortega, as well as what looks like a slobberknocker between Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado.

Seven “Prelims” set UFC Mexico City’s main stage. Let’s checkout the first four ...

155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam

Claudio Puelles (13-3) went from The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): Latin America 3 runner-up to Lightweight contender with five straight wins, among them three kneebars that produced two “Performance of the Night” bonuses. Dan Hooker proved too tough a nut to crack, however, finishing “Prince of Peru” with a body kick late in the second round (watch highlights).

This marks his first fight in 15 months.

The rough UFC start (2-2) for Fares Ziam (14-4) saw losses to Don Madge and Terrance McKinney sandwich narrow decision victories over Jamie Mullarkey and Luigi Vendramini. He has since found his form with a dominant upset of Michal Figlak and another nail-biter against Jai Herbert 10 months later.

He’ll enjoy three-inch height and reach advantages.

The red flag in Puelles’ loss to Hooker wasn’t how single-minded he’d become in pursuit of the kneebar but how quickly he fell apart when Plan A proved unworkable. He made a name for himself by fighting through adversity, from outwrestling Jordan Leavitt after dropping the first round to his dramatic comeback finish of Felipe Silva. He’ll need that level of resilience here; Ziam obviously lacks Hooker’s finishing ability or general bloodlust, but his length, striking skills, and takedown defense present similar issues.

If Puelles commits to a more traditional wrestling approach and fires on all cylinders, he’s got a shot here, as Ziam is still prone to bouts of self-destructive passivity. Based on that Hooker performance, though, odds are that Ziam out-ranges Puelles, lands potshots, and steers clear of Puelles’ increasingly desperate kneebar attempts to secure a decision.

Prediction: Ziam via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Luis Rodriguez (16-2) vs. Denys Bondar (16-5)

Luis Rodriguez (16-2), then just 21, came up short in a 2020 Contender Series bid against Jerome Rivera. A quick pit stop in iKon put “Lazy Boy” back in the win column, after which he rattled off four straight wins in Mexico’s Lux Fight League.

He faces a 3.5-inch reach disadvantage.

Denys Bondar (16-5) saw three separate UFC debuts fall through before finally entering the cage in 2022, only to immediately leave it after Malcolm Gordon snapped his arm in 82 seconds (see it here). This produced another 16-month stint on the sidelines before his return against Carlos Hernandez, who clubbed “Psycho” unconscious with elbows, but had to settle for a technical decision after a called head butt (watch it here).

All of his professional wins have come by stoppage.

Though I didn’t have sky-high expectations for Bondar, I did think his high-pressure style and strong top game would transition reasonably well from the regional scene to the Octagon. That hasn’t played out, to say the least, but I still favor him over Rodriguez. “Lazy Boy” has genuinely atrocious defense and loads up way too much on his punches, which has allowed worse fighters than Bondar to consistently tag him with power shots.

Even if Rodriguez’s takedown defense proves too much for Bondar to overcome, all “Psycho” really has to do to win here is march forward and keep swinging. Rodriguez is admittedly still young enough to have turned the corner in the last nine months, but if the gears haven’t meshed after 18 professional fights, I doubt the No. 19 will do the trick. In the end, volume and constant aggression carry Bondar to victory in an ugly slugfest.

Prediction: Bondar via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos

The controversial Contender Series win for Victor Altamirano (12-3) over Carlos Candelario earned him a UFC debut against Carlos Hernandez, who snapped Altamirano’s four-fight win streak in similarly questionable fashion. Back-to-back wins over Daniel Lacerda and Vinicius Salvador put “El Magnifico” back on track, though Tim Elliott proved a step too far in June 2023.

He is the taller man by one inch.

Felipe dos Santos (7-1) saw two Contender Series fights fall through thanks to Edgar Chairez joining UFC and Lucano Pereira missing weight. Instead, “Lipe Detona” stepped up on short notice to battle Manel Kape in the Octagon, losing a unanimous decision, but walking away with “Fight of the Night.”

His five professional finishes are split 3:2 between submissions and knockouts.

Altamirano always strikes me as a fighter on borrowed time. His wacky striking style is just begging for a shin to the dome and his wrestling has proven hit-or-miss against higher-level opposition. Though he won’t have to worry about takedowns against dos Santos, I’m not convinced he can handle the Brazilian’s freakish volume. Indeed, 100 significant strikes per round is a lot to deal with for someone whose primary defensive strategy is, “lean to one side and shuffle backward.”

If Altamirano wants to win, he needs to re-use the Salvador gameplan and shamelessly spam takedowns. The Brazilian’s aggression naturally leaves him open to well-timed level changes, as seen when Kape landed his only attempted shot. That said, Altamirano’s top game isn’t particularly fearsome and dos Santos is adept at getting back to his feet, so a few spots of top control won’t be enough to offset dos Santos’ far superior output. In short, “Lipe Detona” out-works Altamirano to enter UFC’s win column.

Prediction: dos Santos via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Erik Silva vs. Muhammad Naimov

Erik Silva (9-2) needed just 92 seconds to pound out Anvar Boynazarov and earn a spot in the Octagon. “King” debuted four months later against T.J. Brown, who snapped Silva’s seven-fight win streak via third round arm-triangle choke.

He fights for the first time in 14 months.

Muhammad Naimov (10-2) bounced back from a two-fight skid by winning three straight, then smoked Jamie Mullarkey on short notice in one of 2023’s more surprising upsets. He was once again the underdog in his subsequent clash with Nathaniel Wood, but clutch takedowns and questionably legal tactics earned him the win.

He hasn’t quite ironed out all the kinks yet, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Naimov’s improvements in the cage. Stopping Mullarkey and out-grappling Wood are impressive feats for someone three years removed from a loss to Olivier Murad. Though I’d have picked that version of Naimov to succumb to Silva’s wrestling attack, the current iteration is more than up to the task.

Brown — a serial underachiever — proved that Silva lacks the cardio and technical depth to maintain his wrestling assault once his gas tank peters out. Naimov’s takedown defense is too stout for Silva to grapple his way to an early finish and it’s a wash on the feet, so expect “Hillman’s” sprawl-and-brawl approach to secure UFC win No. 3.

Prediction: Naimov via second round technical knockout

Three more UFC Mexico City “Prelims” undercard bouts remain to preview and predict, including an intriguing Bantamweight banger pitting Cristian Quinonez against Raoni Barcelos. Same time tomorrow, Maniacs.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Mexico City fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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